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ETF Guides Bespoke Website Switch This site has moved to www.bespokeinvest.com . April 12, 2010 at 09:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) Collapse! The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis A few weeks ago we noted that we had just received a big delivery of an item we had made. Without further ado, behold Collapse!The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis . Collapse! is a commemorative game that takes a light hearted approach to the very serious events of the financial crisis. The game allows players to relive the tension, anxiety, and second guessing characterized by this crazy period in history. As the global financial system began to crumble in 2007, it became frighteningly apparent just how precarious its foundation had been all along. While the bankruptcy of Lehman is often cited as the cause of the collapse, the reality is that under a different sequence of events, the pressures would have built up differently, causing something or someone else to bear the blame. There was no one cause. Instead, a thick web of diverse but interconnected culprits was revealed, with each playing their own important role. In the game of Collapse! , each of the 54 blocks represents one of the factors or events that helped create the crisis or hasten its escalation. What better way to relive the financial turmoil than to grab some family or friends and try to build your own financial fortress that’s too big to fail! After stacking the blocks (the included instructions provide a useful frame), players take turns pulling them out one by one until the entire structure collapses! Read the phrase on the block that caused the Collapse! and reminisce about the "bad old days." The 54 blocks in each commemorative game fit nicely into a sleek wooden box that makes an excellent display at your office, your home study, or even your child’s toy room. Collapse! makes for a great gift, collector’s item, or history lesson, so order yours today ! March 01, 2010 at 10:14 PM in Bespoke In The News | Permalink | Comments (50) | TrackBack (0) Blog Switch After a nice run for nearly 3 years on Typepad, we’ve decided to move Think B.I.G. to a Squarespace platform. From here on out, all of our posts will be at www.bespokeinvest.com . If you have this site bookmarked in your favorites or on RSS feed, please be sure to switch over. There is a new RSS feed button at www.bespokeinvest.com . We hope you like the new site! January 31, 2010 at 02:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (31) | TrackBack (0) Default Risk For Financials Shoots Up During the financial crisis, we created an index that tracks credit default swap prices for the major banks and brokers across the world. This essentially measures default risk for the financial sector. After declining significantly for the past 9 months, the index has spiked in recent weeks to its highest level since last September. As shown below, the downtrend line in the index has also been broken on the run-up as well. In just a couple weeks, the fear has picked up quite a bit. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive access to our Bank and Broker CDS Index on a regular basis, along with much, much more . January 29, 2010 at 07:48 PM in Market Analysis | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) What Is Getting Hit Hardest? We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since 1/19. Each successive decile from best to worst in 2009 gets better in terms of performance since 1/19. The 50 worst performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 are only down an average of 2.9% since 1/19. The winners during the bull run are being sold with authority. Below are the worst performing S&P 500 stocks since the January 19th top. US Steel (X) is down a whopping 32%, followed by Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Massey Energy (MEE), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and QUALCOMM (QCOM). All of the names listed above are down more than 20%. January 29, 2010 at 07:31 PM in Market Analysis , Stock Analysis | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) Ugly Tape After trading up nearly 1% in the morning, the major markets have tumbled in afternoon trading. This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good. There’s simply no way to sugercoat it. Since the start of the pullback, earnings and economic numbers have remained strong, so the market is signalling that the indices got ahead of themselves based on what’s in store for earnings and the economy in the future. The long-term uptrend is also getting very close to breaking down. If the uptrend breaks, investors will need to reposition their portfolios, which ultimately puts even more pressure on share prices. At any point, something can spark the market back to the upside, but for now, the short-term trend is down. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke. January 29, 2010 at 03:39 PM in Market Analysis | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Q4 Below we highlight the breakdown of contributions to the 5.7% Real GDP Growth in Q4 (YoY). Consumption and inventories were big contributors to growth, along with exports due to the weak dollar. One area that didn’t contribute to the 5.7% GDP growth was government. In fact, government’s contribution to Q4 GDP actually acted as a drag, as the marginal contribution from the Federal side was more than offset by the drag of state and local governments. Click here to visite the BEA website. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke. January 29, 2010 at 03:18 PM in Economy | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) Sector Earnings Beat Rate and Stock Performace The current earnings per share "beat" rate this earnings season is 73% for all US stocks. Below we highlight the percentage of companies in each sector that have beaten estimates. As shown, only three sectors have a higher beat rate than the overall marketMaterials (76.7%), Consumer Discretionary (83.7%), and Technology (87%). Two of the three sectors that are beating estimates at the highest clip are also the two sectors that have gone down the most since earnings season started. Materials is down the most at -11.37%, while Technology is down 7.72%. Based on this, either investors aren’t paying any attention to the strong earnings, or they think that it can’t get much better than this, hence sell the news. It’s probably a little bit of both. However, guidance has been especially strong as well this earnings season, so the jury is still out on whether the earnings cycle will now turn down. Subscribe to Bespoke Premium to receive more in-depth research from Bespoke. January 29,...